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The “Black Wave” in Europe: A Long-Term Phenomenon or Sudden Shock?

In recent years, there has been increasing talk of a “black wave” spreading across Europe, particularly in light of recent election results in Germany and Austria. However, to describe this rise of the radical right as a sudden or accidental phenomenon would be an oversimplification. In reality, it is a long-term trend, developing across many European nations, from north to south, characterised by growing support for conservative, nationalist, and reactionary political formations.

Countries like Germany, while experiencing a more gradual expansion of the far-right, have witnessed significant growth in these movements in recent years. Other states, such as Austria, have seen a more stable and consolidated presence of the far-right in their parliament for at least two decades. In the Italian context, the phenomenon began as early as the 1990s, with the presence of neo-fascist formations in the governments of the Second Republic. France, too, has experienced a long period of political relevance for the radical right.

These developments reflect a deeper shift in European politics, marked by a progressive turn towards conservatism and a weakening of the anti-fascist legacy. The roots of this transformation can be traced to the economic crises of the last two decades, migration processes that have put pressure on European borders, the difficulties of the European integration project, and ecological and social transitions that have often exacerbated inequalities, fuelling popular discontent.

Radical right-wing forces have succeeded in capitalising on these issues, presenting themselves as the alternative to a left and a moderate centre that seem unable to effectively address the challenges of the present. Issues such as security, immigration, wages, and welfare, partially abandoned by the left, have been reclaimed by the right, which has built a winning political narrative around them.

The Resurgence of Sovereignty and the Transnational Connection of the Right

Another key aspect of this phenomenon is the ability of European right-wing parties to create a network of transnational contacts. Although right-wing movements in Europe are heterogeneous, they share common platforms, especially on issues related to sovereignty, European nationalism, the economic crisis, and migration. This coordination has enabled right-wing forces to strengthen their positions, generating a domino effect that has contributed to their electoral success in various countries.

In particular, we are witnessing a growing convergence between the right in Italy, Hungary, Austria, and Germany. Italy, under the Meloni government, stands out as a particularly significant example. The rise of Giorgia Meloni, from the “catacombs” of the post-fascist right to the leadership of a national government, is seen as a model by right-wing movements and parties across Europe. The Italian case demonstrates how a marginal movement can, over time, transform into a leading political force through a redefinition of its ideological and strategic discourse.

The Effect of Grand Coalitions and the Radicalisation of the Electorate

A factor contributing to this shift to the right is the perception, among many voters, that the grand coalitions governing in many European countries have progressively marginalised their concerns. The sense that politics is increasingly converging, with little distinction between the right and left, has driven part of the electorate towards more extreme positions.

In Germany, for example, the strategy of rejecting coalitions with the far-right (such as the AfD) has had ambivalent effects. On the one hand, it seeks to isolate these political forces; on the other, it can strengthen the identity and cohesion of their electorate, making it more radical. Italian history offers a useful comparison: the Italian Social Movement (MSI) remained out of government for decades until it was “normalised” within the context of National Alliance.

What worries many European countries today is precisely the risk of a “normalisation” of the extreme right. In Germany, for example, the AfD has been able to channel popular discontent on issues such as immigration, even pushing traditional parties, such as the CDU, to adopt more conservative positions to avoid losing support.

Conclusion: A Political and Ideological Challenge

The “black wave” in Europe is neither a short-term phenomenon nor a passing trend. It is the result of a profound political transformation with deep roots that will continue to influence the political landscape for years to come. Traditional parties are now faced with a crucial challenge: to respond to the electorate’s demands without falling into the trap of radicalisation or merely imitating the right’s policies. Europe is entering a new phase of its political history, where sovereignist and nationalist forces are playing an increasingly central role.

These reflections are part of the interview by Roberto Zichittella @ROBZIK for Famiglia Cristiana (no. 41/2024, pp. 30-31) with Massimiliano Livi.


OpenEdition schlägt Ihnen vor, diesen Beitrag wie folgt zu zitieren:
Massimiliano Livi (15. Oktober 2024). The “Black Wave” in Europe: A Long-Term Phenomenon or Sudden Shock? TrIBES. Abgerufen am 10. Februar 2025 von https://doi.org/10.58079/12hi2


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